International Workshop in Recent Achievements on the Study of Extreme Events (VW-Workshop) Australian wild fire

27th – 29th September 2010
Potsdam, Germany

International Workshop in Recent Achievements on the Study of Extreme Events (VW-Workshop)

Valid HTML 4.01!
Valid CSS!

Important Note
Please accept the copyrights! Do not copy the presentation files from the stationary PC without permission of the owner/ originator! Do not take photographs of the presentation during the talks without permission of the speaker! Do not take photographs of the posters without permission of the owner/ originator!



Presentations of the workshop are available online as pdf files for the participants of the workshop: Presentations Directory.

General schedule

The scientific program is scheduled to start on Monday, 27 September 2010, 9:00 h and will end on Wednesday, 29 September 2010, after dinner. Arrival is planned for Sunday (26 September 2010) afternoon/evening. Departure will be on Wednesady after dinner or on Thursday morning, after breakfast.

Information for oral presentations

The speakers have to upload their presentation to the computer in the lecture hall in advance of their talk (in the morning of the day of their talk). The time for the talk is 25 min for invited talks (plus 5 min discussion), and 15 min for contributed talks (plus 5 min discussion). For your talk presentation you can use: power point, pdf or similar on (1) USB memory stick, (2) CD, or (3) your own notebook. The data projector resolution is 1400 x 1050. A stationary PC for your CDs or USB devices is available (Windows XP, MS Office 2003, Adobe Acrobat 6.0).

Information for poster contributions

Posters will be displayed and discussed in the poster sessions on Tuesday evening. The maximum poster size is 100 cm width x 140 cm height. Please print your poster by yourself as we cannot offer any poster printing facilities.

General Programme

Sunday, September 26th

16:00 Registration
19:00 Dinner
20:00 Ice breaker party

Monday, September 27th

8:00 Registration
9:00 Gregoire Nicolis:
Tutorial Extreme events in deterministic systems
10:30 Coffee break
11:00 Holger Kantz:
Tutorial Introduction to the statistical characterization of extreme events
12:30 Lunch
14:00 Opening (Norbert Marwan)
14:05 Manfred Mudelsee:
Invited Talk Climate Risk and Climate Change
14:35 Armin Haas:
Bayesian analyses of European heatwaves
14:55 Pascal Juergens, Andreas Jungherr, Harald Schoen:
Social Media Feeds as Sensor Feeds for Social Extreme Events: Political Twittering in Reaction to the Resignation of the Hessian prime minister Roland Koch
15:15 Annette Witt, Bruce D. Malamud, Mauro Rossi, Fausto Guzzetti and Silvia Peruccacci:
Temporal Correlations and Clustering of Landslides
15:35 Coffee break
16:00 Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, J. Doyne Farmer, Leonard A. Smith:
Panel Discussion ``Extreme events in a changing environment''
(Moderation: Josef Zens, Jürgen Kurths)
18:00 Dinner

Tuesday, September 28th

8:30 Mogens H. Jensen:
Invited Talk Extreme Events in Turbulence and Finance: Forward and Inverse Statistics
9:00 Florian Elmer, A. H. Thieken, I. Pech, H. Kreibich:
Modelling residential building losses of extreme flood events
9:20 Maria Tous, R. Romero, C. Ramis:
Detection of Mediterranean hurricanes: a challenging task aimed at assessing the risk in the present and future climate
9:40 Leonard A. Smith:
Invited Talk The role of simulation models in extreme forecasting
10:10 Robert Stresing, J. Peinke:
Multiscale description and extreme events in turbulence
10:30 Coffee break
11:00 Michael Ghil, P. Yiou et al.:
Invited Talk Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction
11:30 Christophe Etienne, Martin Beniston and Dr. Stèphane Goyette:
GIS and GAMs to predict extreme wind speeds over Switzerland and to assess storm damage
11:50 Oliver Olsson, Matthias Gaßmann:
Modelling system MEXFLUSH: Modelling EXtreme floods and related pesticide FLUSHes
12:10 Ilya Pavlyukevich:
Invited Talk Kramers' times of Levy-driven jump diffusions
12:40 Lunch
14:00 J. Doyne Farmer:
Invited Talk Laws of Technological Progress
14:30 Shaochun Huang, Fred F. Hattermann, Axel Bronstert, Valentina Krysanova:
Projections of future flood conditions in Germany by combining RCMs and regional hydrological model
14:50 Lorena Garcies Artigues, V. Homar:
Testing climatological sensitivities of extreme Mediterranean cyclones for fixed observational network design
15:10 Eniko Regos, Racz, Szalay, Taghizadeh, Ozogany:
Distribution of maximum luminosity of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey
15:30 Coffee break
16:00 Social Event Palace Tour (Havel boat trip)
19:00 Poster Session with Wine & Cheese Buffet

Wednesday, September 29th

8:30 Bruno Merz, Yeshewa Hundecha:
Invited Talk Changing flood probabilities in Germany: The role of climate
9:00 Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, Stilian A. Stoev:
Space Weather Extreme Events: Distribution of Fast Coronal Mass Ejections
9:20 Qian Ye, Peijun Shi, Ming Wang:
Overview of Current Research on Extreme Events in China
9:40 Haiganoush Preisler, A. L. Westerling, J. A. Hicke:
Invited Talk Probability Models for Predicting large Wildland Fires
10:10 Harald E. Rieder, Johannes Staehelin, Mathieu Ribatet, Jörg A. Maeder, Stefania Di Rocco, Leonhardt M. Jancso, Linda Frossard, Thomas Peter, Anthony C. Davison:
Extreme events in total ozone on global scale
10:30 Coffee break
10:50 Kristy Tiampo, R. Dominguez, W. Klein, C. Serino:
Invited Talk Characterizing the effect of damage in simple models of earthquake fault systems
11:20 Christian Kuehn, John Guckenheimer:
A Mathematical Framework for Critical Transitions: Bifurcations, Fast-Slow Systems and Stochastic Dynamics
11:40 Frank Kwasniok:
Predicting extremes in the midlatitudinal atmospheric circulation using regime-dependent modelling
12:00 M. G. Shats, Horst Punzmann, H. Xia:
Capillary Rogue Waves
12:20 Lunch
14:00 Torsten Pöschel:
Invited Talk Extreme events in dissipative gases - The high energy tail
14:30 Alexander Rothkegel, Klaus Lehnertz:
Extreme events in spatial neural networks
14:50 Sarah Hallerberg:
Precursors of Extreme Events
15:10 Stefan Siegert, Jochen Bröcker, Holger Kantz:
Outliers in ensemble forecasts
15:30 Coffee break
16:00 Ulrike Feudel:
Invited Talk Multistability and attractor hopping under the influence of intermittent noise
16:30 Eric Bertin, Géza Györgyi:
Do we know everything about the extreme statistics of independent events?
16:50 Alvaro Corral, Albert Osso, Josep Enric Llebot:
Power-law behavior and scaling in the dissipation of tropical cyclones
17:10 Richard J. Murnane:
Invited Talk Climate variability and modeled losses of hurricane landfall in the United States
17:40 Closing (Holger Kantz, Ulrike Bischler)
18:30 Dinner

Poster Programme

Poster 1 M. Abel, Z. Slizewski
Irregular Travels of Trucks on German Highways
Poster 2 Safieddine Bouali, Jos Leys
2D Hadley Cell Twisted by Natural and Economic Forcing: A Non-standard Modeling of Tropical Cyclones
Poster 3 Markus Böttle, Diego Rybski, and Jürgen P. Kropp
Estimating damage costs from sea-level-extremes in the Baltic Sea Region
Poster 4 Y. V. Chebrakov and V. V. Shmagin
Revealing heterogeneities in weak-magnetic systems on experimental temperature dependences of magnetic susceptibility
Poster 5 D. Coumou and V. Petoukhov
Are recent extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere caused by global warming?
Poster 6 Christina McLeman, Doerthe Tetzlaff, Marco Thiel
Runoff in Fractal River Basins
Poster 7 Reik V. Donner, Jonathan F. Donges, Norbert Marwan, Yong Zou, Juergen Kurths
Identifying hidden dynamical transitions in paleoclimate time series by means of recurrence networks
Poster 8 Esther Gutierrez and Juan Luis Cabrera
Transient stabilization of a time delayed inverted pendulum under extreme perturbations
Poster 9 Naoki Itoh, Jürgen Kurths
Evaluation of climate time series by singular spectrum analysis
Poster 10 Mirko Kämpf, Sebastian Tismer, Lev Muchnik, Jan W. Kantelhardt,
Extreme events in social networks - A study of Wikipedia access and edit time series
Poster 11 V. Astakhov, S. Koblyanskii and T. Kapitaniak
Rare attractors in dynamical systems
Poster 12 Vimal Kishore, M. S. Santhanam, R. E. Amritkar
Extreme events and random walk on complex networks
Poster 13 N. M. Markovich, U. R. Krieger
Estimation of Heavy-Tailed Density Functions and their Quantiles
Poster 14 Natalia Markovich
Estimation of the impact of clusters of extreme values
Poster 15 Naval K. Lohani, Lallan Prasad
Solar-Terrestrial Interaction - perturbing the earth's Magnetosphere
Poster 16 Nishant Malik, Yong Zou, Norbert Marwan and Jürgen Kurths
Identifying abrupt dynamical transitions in paleo-monsoon records
Poster 17 N. R. Moloney and J. Davidsen
Extreme value statistics in the solar wind
Poster 18 Ngo Thi To Nhien, Tran Xuan Hong, Nguyen Viet Hung
Disaster Database System in Vietnam
Poster 19 M. Taghizadeh-Popp, K. Ozogány, Z. Rácz, E. Regos, A. Szalay
Extreme statistics for random sample size and its application on distribution of maximal luminosities
Poster 20 Ruth Petrie and Ross Bannister
High Resolution Dynamic Data Assimilation for Non-hydrostatic Systems
Poster 21 Mofizur Rahman
Ocean Acidification and Marine Biota
Poster 22 Samuel Bowong and Jürgen Kurths
Parameter estimation and optimal control of the dynamics of transmission of tuberculosis with application to Cameroon
Poster 23 N. Schütz, M. H. Trauth and M. Holschneider
Detection of change points in palaeo-climatic time series using Bayesian inference on linear mixed models
Poster 24 V. V. Shmagin and Y. V. Chebrakov
Constructing continuous analytical solutions for various fitting problems and their applications in econometrics and medicine
Poster 25 A. Syta, G. Litak, L. Jedlinski, J. Jonak
Wear monitoring in gearbox system by recurrence quantification analysis
Poster 26 S. Uhlemann, J. Zimmer, Y. Hundecha, B. Merz
Spatial risk: On the role and origins of trans-basin floods in Germany
Poster 27 Janek Zimmer
Estimation of maximum precipitation: an idealized physical model approach
Poster 28 Guojie Wang, Albertus Johannes Dolman, Andrea Alessandri
European summer climate modulated by NAO-related precipitation
Poster 29 Christian Wolff, I. Kristen, D. Verschuren, G. H. Haug & CHALLACEA Participants
Lake Challa (Kenya/Tanzania) sediments as recorder of present and past ENSO variability in equatorial East Africa
Poster 30 Yi Yin, Hongyan Liu
Forest Recession and Soil Sandification Triggered by Mid-Holocene Drought Events in the Semi-arid China
Poster 31 Eduardo G. Altmann
Inter-event time distribution of words
Poster 32 E. J. Ngamga, N. Marwan, J. Donges and J. Kurths
Detecting transitions to strange nonchaotic dynamics using a recurrence-based network approach