Important Note
Please accept the copyrights! Do not copy the presentation files
from the stationary PC without permission of the owner/ originator!
Do not take photographs of the presentation during the talks without
permission of the speaker! Do not take photographs of the posters
without permission of the owner/ originator!
Programme
Presentations
Presentations of the workshop are available online as pdf files
for the participants of the workshop:
Presentations Directory.
General schedule
The scientific program is scheduled to start on Monday, 27 September 2010, 9:00 h
and will end on Wednesday, 29 September 2010, after dinner. Arrival is planned for Sunday (26 September 2010)
afternoon/evening. Departure will be on Wednesady after dinner or on Thursday morning, after breakfast.
Information for oral presentations
The speakers have to upload their presentation to the computer
in the lecture hall in advance of their talk (in the morning of the day
of their talk). The time for the talk is 25 min for invited talks (plus 5 min discussion), and
15 min for contributed talks (plus 5 min discussion).
For your talk presentation you can use: power point, pdf or similar on
(1) USB memory stick, (2) CD, or (3) your own notebook.
The data projector resolution is 1400 x 1050. A stationary PC for your CDs or USB devices is available
(Windows XP, MS Office 2003, Adobe Acrobat 6.0).
Information for poster contributions
Posters will be displayed and discussed in the poster
sessions on Tuesday evening. The maximum poster size is
100 cm width x 140 cm height. Please print your poster by yourself as we cannot
offer any poster printing facilities.
General Programme
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16:00 |
Registration |
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19:00 |
Dinner |
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20:00 |
Ice breaker party |
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8:00 |
Registration |
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9:00 |
Gregoire Nicolis: |
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Tutorial Extreme events in deterministic systems |
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10:30 |
Coffee break |
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11:00 |
Holger Kantz: |
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Tutorial Introduction to the statistical characterization of extreme events |
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12:30 |
Lunch |
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14:00 |
Opening (Norbert Marwan) |
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14:05 |
Manfred Mudelsee: |
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Invited Talk Climate Risk and Climate Change |
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14:35 |
Armin Haas: |
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Bayesian analyses of European heatwaves |
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14:55 |
Pascal Juergens, Andreas Jungherr, Harald Schoen: |
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Social Media Feeds as Sensor Feeds for Social Extreme Events: Political Twittering in Reaction to the Resignation of the Hessian prime minister Roland Koch |
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15:15 |
Annette Witt, Bruce D. Malamud, Mauro Rossi, Fausto Guzzetti and Silvia Peruccacci: |
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Temporal Correlations and Clustering of Landslides |
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15:35 |
Coffee break |
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16:00 |
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, J. Doyne Farmer, Leonard A. Smith: |
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Panel Discussion
``Extreme events in a changing environment'' |
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(Moderation: Josef Zens, Jürgen Kurths) |
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18:00 |
Dinner |
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8:30 |
Mogens H. Jensen: |
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Invited Talk Extreme Events in Turbulence and Finance: Forward and Inverse Statistics |
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9:00 |
Florian Elmer, A. H. Thieken, I. Pech, H. Kreibich: |
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Modelling residential building losses of extreme flood events |
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9:20 |
Maria Tous, R. Romero, C. Ramis: |
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Detection of Mediterranean hurricanes: a challenging task aimed at assessing the risk in the present and future climate |
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9:40 |
Leonard A. Smith: |
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Invited Talk The role of simulation models in extreme forecasting |
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10:10 |
Robert Stresing, J. Peinke: |
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Multiscale description and extreme events in turbulence |
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10:30 |
Coffee break |
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11:00 |
Michael Ghil, P. Yiou et al.: |
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Invited Talk Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction |
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11:30 |
Christophe Etienne, Martin Beniston and Dr. Stèphane Goyette: |
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GIS and GAMs to predict extreme wind speeds over Switzerland and to assess storm damage |
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11:50 |
Oliver Olsson, Matthias Gaßmann: |
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Modelling system MEXFLUSH: Modelling EXtreme floods and related pesticide FLUSHes |
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12:10 |
Ilya Pavlyukevich: |
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Invited Talk Kramers' times of Levy-driven jump diffusions |
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12:40 |
Lunch |
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14:00 |
J. Doyne Farmer: |
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Invited Talk Laws of Technological Progress |
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14:30 |
Shaochun Huang, Fred F. Hattermann, Axel Bronstert, Valentina Krysanova: |
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Projections of future flood conditions in Germany by combining RCMs and regional hydrological model |
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14:50 |
Lorena Garcies Artigues, V. Homar: |
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Testing climatological sensitivities of extreme Mediterranean cyclones for fixed observational network design |
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15:10 |
Eniko Regos, Racz, Szalay, Taghizadeh, Ozogany: |
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Distribution of maximum luminosity of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey |
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15:30 |
Coffee break |
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16:00 |
Social Event Palace Tour (Havel boat trip) |
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19:00 |
Poster Session with Wine & Cheese Buffet |
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8:30 |
Bruno Merz, Yeshewa Hundecha: |
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Invited Talk Changing flood probabilities in Germany: The role of climate |
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9:00 |
Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, Stilian A. Stoev: |
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Space Weather Extreme Events: Distribution of Fast Coronal Mass Ejections |
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9:20 |
Qian Ye, Peijun Shi, Ming Wang: |
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Overview of Current Research on Extreme Events in China |
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9:40 |
Haiganoush Preisler, A. L. Westerling, J. A. Hicke: |
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Invited Talk Probability Models for Predicting large Wildland Fires |
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10:10 |
Harald E. Rieder, Johannes Staehelin, Mathieu Ribatet, Jörg A. Maeder, Stefania Di Rocco, Leonhardt M. Jancso, Linda Frossard, Thomas Peter, Anthony C. Davison: |
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Extreme events in total ozone on global scale |
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10:30 |
Coffee break |
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10:50 |
Kristy Tiampo, R. Dominguez, W. Klein, C. Serino: |
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Invited Talk Characterizing the effect of damage in simple models of earthquake fault systems |
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11:20 |
Christian Kuehn, John Guckenheimer: |
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A Mathematical Framework for Critical Transitions: Bifurcations, Fast-Slow Systems and Stochastic Dynamics |
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11:40 |
Frank Kwasniok: |
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Predicting extremes in the midlatitudinal atmospheric circulation using regime-dependent modelling |
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12:00 |
M. G. Shats, Horst Punzmann, H. Xia: |
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Capillary Rogue Waves |
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12:20 |
Lunch |
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14:00 |
Torsten Pöschel: |
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Invited Talk Extreme events in dissipative gases - The high energy tail |
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14:30 |
Alexander Rothkegel, Klaus Lehnertz: |
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Extreme events in spatial neural networks |
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14:50 |
Sarah Hallerberg: |
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Precursors of Extreme Events |
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15:10 |
Stefan Siegert, Jochen Bröcker, Holger Kantz: |
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Outliers in ensemble forecasts |
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15:30 |
Coffee break |
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16:00 |
Ulrike Feudel: |
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Invited Talk Multistability and attractor hopping under the influence of intermittent noise |
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16:30 |
Eric Bertin, Géza Györgyi: |
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Do we know everything about the extreme statistics of independent events? |
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16:50 |
Alvaro Corral, Albert Osso, Josep Enric Llebot: |
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Power-law behavior and scaling in the dissipation of tropical cyclones |
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17:10 |
Richard J. Murnane: |
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Invited Talk Climate variability and modeled losses of hurricane landfall in the United States |
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17:40 |
Closing (Holger Kantz, Ulrike Bischler) |
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18:30 |
Dinner |
| Poster 1 |
M. Abel, Z. Slizewski
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Irregular Travels of Trucks on German Highways |
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Poster 2 |
Safieddine Bouali, Jos Leys
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2D Hadley Cell Twisted by Natural and Economic Forcing: A
Non-standard Modeling of Tropical Cyclones |
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Poster 3 |
Markus Böttle, Diego Rybski, and Jürgen P. Kropp
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Estimating damage costs from sea-level-extremes in the Baltic Sea Region |
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Poster 4 |
Y. V. Chebrakov and V. V. Shmagin
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Revealing heterogeneities in weak-magnetic systems on
experimental temperature dependences of magnetic
susceptibility |
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Poster 5 |
D. Coumou and V. Petoukhov
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Are recent extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere
caused by global warming? |
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Poster 6 |
Christina McLeman, Doerthe Tetzlaff, Marco Thiel
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Runoff in Fractal River Basins |
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Poster 7 |
Reik V. Donner, Jonathan F. Donges, Norbert Marwan, Yong Zou, Juergen Kurths
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Identifying hidden dynamical transitions in paleoclimate time series by means of recurrence networks |
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Poster 8 |
Esther Gutierrez and Juan Luis Cabrera
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Transient stabilization of a time delayed inverted pendulum
under extreme perturbations |
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Poster 9 |
Naoki Itoh, Jürgen Kurths |
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Evaluation of climate time series by singular spectrum analysis |
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Poster 10 |
Mirko Kämpf, Sebastian Tismer, Lev Muchnik, Jan W. Kantelhardt,
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Extreme events in social networks - A study of Wikipedia
access and edit time series |
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Poster 11 |
V. Astakhov, S. Koblyanskii and T. Kapitaniak
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Rare attractors in dynamical systems |
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Poster 12 |
Vimal Kishore, M. S. Santhanam, R. E. Amritkar
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Extreme events and random walk on complex networks |
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Poster 13 |
N. M. Markovich, U. R. Krieger
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Estimation of Heavy-Tailed Density Functions and their
Quantiles |
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Poster 14 |
Natalia Markovich
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Estimation of the impact of clusters of extreme values |
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Poster 15 |
Naval K. Lohani, Lallan Prasad
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Solar-Terrestrial Interaction - perturbing the earth's
Magnetosphere |
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Poster 16 |
Nishant Malik, Yong Zou, Norbert Marwan and Jürgen Kurths
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Identifying abrupt dynamical transitions in paleo-monsoon
records |
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Poster 17 |
N. R. Moloney and J. Davidsen
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Extreme value statistics in the solar wind |
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Poster 18 |
Ngo Thi To Nhien, Tran Xuan Hong, Nguyen Viet Hung
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Disaster Database System in Vietnam |
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Poster 19 |
M. Taghizadeh-Popp, K. Ozogány, Z. Rácz, E. Regos, A. Szalay
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Extreme statistics for random sample size and its application
on distribution of maximal luminosities |
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Poster 20 |
Ruth Petrie and Ross Bannister
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High Resolution Dynamic Data Assimilation for Non-hydrostatic
Systems |
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Poster 21 |
Mofizur Rahman
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Ocean Acidification and Marine Biota |
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Poster 22 |
Samuel Bowong and Jürgen Kurths
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Parameter estimation and optimal control of the dynamics of
transmission of tuberculosis with application to Cameroon |
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Poster 23 |
N. Schütz, M. H. Trauth and M. Holschneider
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Detection of change points in palaeo-climatic time series
using Bayesian inference on linear mixed models |
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Poster 24 |
V. V. Shmagin and Y. V. Chebrakov
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Constructing continuous analytical solutions for various
fitting problems and their applications in econometrics and
medicine |
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Poster 25 |
A. Syta, G. Litak, L. Jedlinski, J. Jonak
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Wear monitoring in gearbox system by recurrence
quantification analysis |
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Poster 26 |
S. Uhlemann, J. Zimmer, Y. Hundecha, B. Merz
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Spatial risk: On the role and origins of trans-basin floods
in Germany |
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Poster 27 |
Janek Zimmer
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Estimation of maximum precipitation: an idealized physical
model approach |
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Poster 28 |
Guojie Wang, Albertus Johannes Dolman, Andrea Alessandri
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European summer climate modulated by NAO-related
precipitation |
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Poster 29 |
Christian Wolff, I. Kristen, D. Verschuren, G. H. Haug & CHALLACEA Participants
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Lake Challa (Kenya/Tanzania) sediments as recorder of present
and past ENSO variability in equatorial East Africa |
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Poster 30 |
Yi Yin, Hongyan Liu
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Forest Recession and Soil Sandification Triggered by
Mid-Holocene Drought Events in the Semi-arid China |
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Poster 31 |
Eduardo G. Altmann
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Inter-event time distribution of words |
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Poster 32 |
E. J. Ngamga, N. Marwan, J. Donges and J. Kurths
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Detecting transitions to strange nonchaotic dynamics using a recurrence-based network approach |
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